Understanding Blocknative’s gas calculation: Why do some predictions show the same values?
If you’ve ever tried to send a transaction on a blockchain network, you know that gas prices can be a bit of a puzzle. You want your transaction to go through quickly, but you don’t want to overpay. That’s where tools like Blocknative’s Gas Estimator come in. They give you an idea of what gas price should be used to confirm your transaction in time.
But you might notice something odd: sometimes the estimator shows the same gas price for different confidence levels. For example, predictions of 99%, 90%, and 70% may show the same value. What’s up with that? Let’s break them down in plain language.
Gas price predictions are all about probability
First, it’s important to understand that gas price predictions are all about probability. Blocknative’s gas platform analyzes recent blocks, transaction patterns, and how busy the network is to calculate the gas price that will confirm your transaction in the next block.
We present these estimates by confidence levels:
- 70% Prediction: There is a 70% chance that your transaction will be confirmed at this gas price.
- 90% prediction: There is a 90% chance.
- 99% prediction: You guessed it, a 99% chance.
Think of these as an “envelope” of possible gas prices you might need based on how unpredictable the grid is at that moment.
So why do different confidence levels show the same gas price?
You can see above that Blocknative’s Gas Estimator is returning similar values at different POL confidence intervals.
1. The Network is Super Stable
When the network is moving smoothly, meaning that transactions are ongoing and there is no significant congestion, uncertainty about gas prices is reduced. The estimator sees that things have been stable and as a result the range of possible gas prices is narrowing. This can land predictions of 70%, 90%, and 99% all on the same number.
Imagine you are in a coffee shop that always charges $2 for a coffee. Even if you go at any time, the price does not change. In this case, the best price guess at any confidence level is $2.
2. There is not enough variation in the latest data
Sometimes the network may have processed transactions at the same gas price for several blocks in a row. When there is no change in recent gas prices, the estimator does not have to work with different numbers for different confidence levels. So it shows the same value across the board.
The “elastic band” of uncertainty.
Think of predictions as an elastic band that stretches and contracts:
- When the network is unpredictablethe band stretches. The 70%, 90%, and 99% forecasts will show different gas prices because there is a wider range.
For example, a 70% prediction might be 120 units, a 90% prediction 150 units, and a 99% prediction 200 units. - When the network is stableband contracts Predictions coincide, sometimes showing the same value.
All confidence levels can predict 25 units because that’s what’s happening consistently.
What does this mean for you?
Seeing duplicate values on the gas calculator is not a bug or error; It is really useful information.
- It represents stability: The network is stable at the moment, so you can be sure that the price of gas will not suddenly increase.
- Easier decision making: You don’t have to scramble to pick the “right” gas price. Since all predictions are the same, it’s a safe bet.
- Stay tuned: Remember that network conditions may vary. If your transaction is time-sensitive, keep an eye on the appraiser if things start to heat up.
It works on different blockchains
Blocknative’s gas calculation is not just for one blockchain, it supports multiple networks. While each network has its quirks, the basic idea of gas price forecasts and confidence levels works the same way everywhere.
Bottom line
Understanding how gas calculators work can save you time, money and a lot of trouble. When you see the same gas price at different confidence levels, that’s actually a good thing. This means that the network is stable and you can continue with confidence.
So the next time you’re about to send a transaction and you notice those duplicate announcements, you’ll know exactly what’s going on. It’s just the way the network says, “All clear!”
Go Hand in Hand with Blocknative
Blocknative’s Gas API serves over 600 requests every second. You can integrate it into your project today or practice with Gas Estimator via our website or browser extension.
